Dear Elim Family,
When I sent out my missive yesterday in the early afternoon, we were still only hearing that gatherings of greater than 250 were to be cancelled. Then, Governor Pritzker announced that gatherings over 50 should be cancelled. Last evening, he recommended no greater than 10. So, many of my recommendations from yesterday are now moot!
I am meeting with the elders today to discuss the situation, but I’m certain we will be cancelling most church activities. We will be discussing on-line options for worship, study, fellowship and prayer. I’ll have more to tell you tomorrow.
I finally read an article today that helped me understand the mathematics of the situation. It’s written by a successful CEO of a tech company who is a math genius. He explained the numbers and why we’re looking at an exponential growth rate that could be devastating, if the virus is left unchecked. I’m attaching the full article below, but as it’s a large article, here’s a quick summary:
- The exponential rate of spread really could be catastrophic if extreme measures of social distancing are not put in place.
- While only 15% of those who contract the virus may need medical attention, if the cases reach only into the tens of thousands, it could overload our hospital system. If it reached into the millions (and w/out any checks, it could do that in a month’s time), it would be absolutely overwhelming.
- It’s not simply a lack of hospital beds, but more critically, the lack of ventilators. Therefore, they would have to select who gets a ventilator, and who doesn’t (and so will die). And if your kid has an accident, needs a surgery with a ventilator, but there isn’t one available, then he cannot get the help he needs. In other words, many people who are seeking medical care for something other than the virus, could lose their lives, also.
- This mathematician showed that with no restraints put in place, we could likely have 10 million cases within the next 30 days. At 15% hospitalization rate, that’s 1.5 million– but we only have about 150,000 ventilators in the country (and many of them already being used for surgeries, and cases and conditions outside of the coronavirus).
- So, with adequate medical care, 98% of people recover. But if the majority of people infected couldn’t get adequate care, because the system is overwhelmed, then the death rate would increase significantly.
- With severe social distancing practiced, in the next 30 days we would only see 160,000 cases, and so only 24,000 (15%) needing medical care. With extreme social distancing practiced, and soon, he estimates only 40,000 cases developing, and so only 6,000 critical patients.
- In summary, with extreme social distancing, we could see 6-24,000 cases needing medical care. That is still significant, but manageable. With no measures taken, perhaps 1.5 million could need medical care, completely overwhelming our medical system, and that would lead to catastrophic results.
After reading the article, I believe the WISE thing to do is to encourage social distancing. Should we shut down all church activities? Probably. I’ll make the final decision with the elders, and I’ll let you know tomorrow.
Again, we’re already discussing some pretty cool ways of using technology to bring worship, study, prayer and fellowship into your living room via the internet. And we’ll stay in touch via Facebook, e-mail, texting and phone calls.
I’ve been very impressed. Many who I’ve spoken to, who I thought would be more upset (like having your wedding cancelled or postponed) are taking things in stride. Through my conversations with many of you, I judge that your faith is very strong indeed! Strong enough to not be overcome by anxiety and fear, which was my concern from the start. God is so good! And you all are wonderful!
I believe we’ll get through this just fine. We might have to pull together and “bear one another’s burden,” and we will! May God’s grace be upon us all, and may He help us– worldwide– to stem the tide of this virus, and weather this storm. Amen!
Love in Him,
Pastor Steve
